To get a good answer, you’d want to identify a sample of large long-distance races and a particular time period – you could work out the numbers of participants and number of deaths. For example, take the set of World Marathon Majors (excluding Boston in the year of the bombing), or the set of Rock and Roll races, or the ten biggest marathons in Europe, over a period of ten years.
In Ireland, in the last ten years of Dublin marathon there has been one death, in 2013, out of about 100,000 participants.
In the same period there was also a death in a half marathon that is part of the same series, and in 2006, outside the ten year span, there was another death in the marathon.
So, ballpark, 1 in 100,000.
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I think all of those deaths were heart attacks, not hyponatremia (although that is a problem in some races). I remember when a woman died during London marathon a few years ago, there was some concern about the energy drinks/stimulants she was taking during the race, because they may have contributed to the stress on her heart.